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C1 China State-owned/Major Refinery Series 2011


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Summary:
 
China has ranked as the world’s second largest refiner, with over 12,000MBD of CDU capacity after five years of rapid growth in refining industry. The country has begun to play an important role in Asian products market and global crude market after domestic demands covered. The Chinese state-owned companies are showing more influences on regional and global market fundamentals, and having a bigger say in the oil pricing.
 
In 2011, China’s refining industry came to farewell to its harvest time of favorable margin and high run rates since 2009. With new round of high oil price era coming, China’s refining activity may see more pressure, and China’s new pricing mechanism from 2009 is also expected to face new challenge with refining margin weakening.
 
C1’s major refinery research covers over 80 state-owned refineries, with total capacity over 10,000MBD, and also involves with new expansion projects and supply and distributing blueprint.
 
 
 
◆   Can china maintain double digit growth in its refining industry? Will the projects delay? Which year would be the next   peak refining year? Are there any more chances for JV refining projects?
◆   When would china be ready for phase II of State Petroleum Reserve? Would China fasten progress of SPR, under increasing dependency of crude oil?
◆   What is the timeline of China‘s upgrading of Euro IV and Euro V standard for gasoline and gasoil? How would it impact China’s refining industry
◆   How is China‘s appetite for crude oil and product export stimulus in 2012, based on maintenance plans?
◆   Will China import more from AG, CIS, or South America? Will china import more and more condensate to meet petrochemical demand?
 
 
 
 
In the reports we will help solve the above problems, with 10 years’ experience of tracking China’s state-owned and major refineries, C1 is the first and unique agency providing consistent and detailed update on this field. C1 understands philosophy of China’s major refineries as well as whole picture of China’s refining and petrochemical downstream, helping to figure out China’s feedstock and products supply scenario.
 
 
 
Features
 
 
 
* China’s refining layout and refining center
* Update on capacities and configuration of over 80 ,  existing major refineries and petrochemicals
* Expansion roadmap 2011-2015, under long term and short term industry and macroeconomic background
* Review and study on China’s refinery activity and refining margin back to Year 2004.
* Crude oil and condensate sourcing and trading flow into and inside China
* Opportunities and challenges to enter China’s refining industry and market, and status review of current JV projects
* Infrastructure: China crude oil terminals, tanks, pipelines layout updates
* China’s petroleum consuming analysis: Naphtha, Gasoline, Gas oil, Kerosene/Jet, Fuel oil and LPG,
 

                                                     

 

                                             TABLE OF CONTENTS

 
 
 
preface
Executive Summary
 
1.    Overview: China’S Refining Industry Layout
1.1   Development in China’s Refining Capacity
Chart: Distribution of Refining Capacity in the World in 2011
Chart: Refinery Scale Comparison: China vs. Major Refining Giants
Chart: Refining Capacity Expansion in China (1997-2014)
Chart: Changes in China's Refining Capacity (2004-2011)
1.2   China's Oil Refining Bases
1.2.1 China’s Refining Capacity – by Region
Chart: China’s Refining Capacity – by Region
Map: Distribution of China’s Refineries
1.2.2 China’s Refining Capacity – by Ownership
Chart: China's Refining Capacity - By Ownership
Table: Average Refinery Capacity of China’s Top 4 Refiners
1.2.3 Top 10 Refineries in China
Table: Top 10 Refineries in China - By Capacity
1.3   Independent Refineries Fed with Feedstock beside Crude Oil
Chart: Aggregate Capacity of Independent Refineries (2011) – By Region
Table: China's Top Ten Independent Refineries at End 2011
1.4   Foreign Investment in China’s Refining Industry
Table: Sino-Foreign Joint Venture Refineries in China
 
 
2.    Characteristics of Refineries in China
2.1   Typical Processing Flow in Chinese Refineries
Chart: Processing Flow of Fuel Refineries
Chart: Processing Flow of Fuel-Chemical Refineries
Chart: Processing Flow of Fuel-Lube Oil Refineries
2.2   Complexity and Configuration of Chinese Refineries
Chart: Refinery Configuration Comparison
2.2.1 Simple Topping Units
Table: Chinese Refineries with Topping Capacity Above 160kb/d
2.2.2 Residue Catalytic Cracking Conversion Units
Table: Key FCCs and RFCCs in Chinese Refineries
2.2.3 Delayed Cokers
Table: Capacity of Cokers in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.4 Distillates Hydrocracking Conversion Units
Table: Hydrocracking Conversion Units in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.5 Hydrofining Conversion Units
Table: Hydrofining Units in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.6 Reforming Units
Table: Reforming Units in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.7 Aromatics Units
Chart: China’s Aromatics Production Capacity by End 2011
2.2.8 Bitumen Units
Table: China's Top 10 Bitumen Producers
2.2.9 MTBE Units
2.2.10 Ethylene Units
 
 
3.    Crude oil sourcing and flow into/inside China
3.1   Crude Oil Supply and Demand in China
Chart: China’s Crude Oil Supply in 2005-2011
3.2   Crude Oil Imports
3.2.1 Crude Import Trend in 2005-2011
Chart: China’s Crude Oil Imports in 2005-2011
3.2.2 Flow of Crude Oil Imports – By Region
Chart: China’s Crude Oil Imports – By Region
3.2.3 Major Origins of China’s Crude Imports
Chart: Changes in Major Crude Oil Suppliers to China in 2011
3.3   Growing Supplies from Russia and South America Amid Closer Energy Cooperation
Table: China's "Loan-for-Oil" Agreements
3.4   Domestic Crude Oil Output
Chart: China’s Crude Oil Production – by Ownership (2011)
Map: Distribution of China’s Major Oilfields
 
 
4.    Government Policy Perspective on the Refining Industry
4.1 12th Plan for Petroleum and Chemical industry
4.2 Petroleum and Chemical Stimulus Package for 2009-2011
4.3  Policy Guidelines for Joint-Venture Refinery Investment
4.3.1 Refining Industry Entrance Requirements
4.3.2 Import Licenses and Quotas
Table: China's Authorized Crude Importers at End 2011
4.3.3 New Crude-Based Pricing Mechanism for Domestic Product Prices
Table: Adjustments in China’s Distillates Prices in the Last Four Years
4.3.4 Increasing Third-Party Crude Processing and Product Toll-traded exporting Quata
Table: Quotas of Refined Oil Processing Trade Granted to PetroChina and Sinopec in 2010
4.3.5 High Consumption Taxes Levied on Oil Products in domestic market
Table: China's Consumption Tax Reform for Oil Products
4.3.5 Qualifications for Crude Oil & Refined Oil Distribution Business in China
Table: China's Authorized Crude Distributors at End 2011
Table: Oil Products Wholesale License Holders Statistics
4.4   Government 's Specification Regulation
4.4.1 Euro-III Gasoline Upgrading in 2011
4.4.2 Euro-III Gasoil Upgrading in 2011
4.4.3 Background of Government Regulation
Table: China's Vehicle Emission Standards Timeline
Table: China's Specifications for National Standard Gasoline and Gasoil
 
 
4.4.4The Government’s Timetable for National Standards
Table: China's Motor Vehicle Emission Standards Schedule (revised plan)
Table: Specifications for National Phase III Gasoline for Motor Vehicles (GB 17930-2011)
Table: Specifications for National Phase III Gasoil for Motor Vehicles (GB 252-2000)
Table: Specifications for Beijing Local Phase IV Gasoline for Motor Vehicles (DB11/ 238-2007)
Table: Specifications for Beijing Local Phase IV Gasoil for Motor Vehicles (DB11/239-2007)
 
 
4.4.5Impact of New Specifications Regulation on Refinery Upgrading
4.5 Import/Export Duties Changes in 2011
4.4.1 Import Duties Raise on Petroleum Products in 2011
Table: Provisional Import Tariffs on Crude Oil and Main Refined Oils
4.4.2 Export Duties for Crude & Petroleum Products
4.6 Deregulation of the Chinese Oil Market
 
 
 
5.    Opportunities & Challenges for Foreign Investment in China’s Refining Sector
5.1   Opportunities
5.1.1   China’s Excessive Appetite and Dependency on Foreign Oil
Chart: China's Dependency on Foreign Crude in 2005-2011
5.1.2   Capital Advantage
5.1.3   Technical Advantage
5.2   Challenges:
5.2.1   Barriers in the Refining Sector
5.2.2   Barriers in the Chinese Refined Oil Wholesale Market
5.2.3   Limitations in Importing and Exporting
5.2.4   Monopolization of SOEs in Wholesale and Retail Markets
Chart: Distribution of Petrol Stations at End 2011 – by Ownership
 
 
6.    Cost and Margin Analysis of China’s Refining industry
6.1   Feedstock Components of China’s Refineries
6.2   Changes in Refining Margins Since 2004
Chart: CNPC’s & Sinopec’s Refining Profits/Losses in 2004-2011
Chart: Change in China’s Refining Margins in 2008-2011
6.3   Impact of Current Oil Products Pricing Mechanism
6.4   Wider Use of Heavy Sour Crude to Reduce Feedstock Costs
6.5   Profit Model of China’s Refineries
 
 
7.    Operation Status of China's Refineries
7.1   Crude Throughputs at Chinese Refineries
Chart: Historical Crude Oil Throughput (2005-2011)
Chart: Average Run Rates of China's Major Refineries (2005-2011)
Chart: Average Run Rates of China's Major Refineries in 2011
7.2   Product Yield Ratios of China’s Major Refineries
Chart: Oil Product Yield Ratios of China’s Major Refineries (2004-2011)
Chart: Product Output of Sinopec/CNPC in 2011
7.3   Refinery Turnaround Schedules in 2010
Table: Maintenance Schedules of Major Refineries for 2010
 
 
8.    Forecast of China’s Refining Industry Layout
8.1   China’s Capacity Expansion in 2011 and Beyond
8.1.1       Newly-Added or Planned Major Refineries in 2011 and Beyond
Table: Newly-Added or Planned Major Refineries in 2011and Beyond
Map: Major Refinery Expansion Projects in China for 2011 and Beyond
8.1.2       Newly-Added or Planned Capacity in Existing Refineries in 2010 and Beyond
Table: Newly-added or Planned Capacity in Existing Refineries in 2011 and Beyond
Table: Secondary Refining Units to Be Added or Expanded in Major Refineries
8.1.3 Estimated Layout of China’s Refining Industry by 2015
Chart: Estimated Distribution of Refining Capacity Increases in Chinese Major Refineries in 2011-2015 - by Region
Chart: Estimated Distribution of Refining Capacity in Chinese Major Refineries by 2015 - by Region
8.1.4 Capacity Expansion of Independent Refineries till 2015
Table: Capacity Expansion Plans of Independent Refineries till 2015
 
 
 
9.    Crude Oil Logistics & Infrastructure
9.1   Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
Table: Phase I of China’s SPR Bases
Table: Phase II of China’s SPR Base
Table:China’s Major Commercial Crude Reserve Bases
9.2 China’s World-Class Crude Receiving Terminals
Map: Distribution of China’s Major Crude Jetties & Tanks
Table: China’s Major Crude Receiving Jetties in Operation
Table: China’s Major Crude Receiving Jetties Being Planned or Under Construction
9.3   Overview of Crude Pipeline Networks in China
9.3.1Inner Pipeline Network
Table: Main Pipelines for Domestic Crude Oil Transportation in China
9.3.2Cross-Country Pipeline Network
Table: Main Pipelines for Foreign Crude Oil Supply into China
9.4 Outlook for Logistics and Infrastructure Projects
 
 
10.      Refined Products Balance Sheet in China
Chart: Petroleum Consumption Growth vs. Refinery Capacity Growth in 2005-2011
10.1 Output ratio of products in China's refineries
Chart: Output ratio of products in China's refineries(2011)
10.2 LPG
Table: China's LPG Balance Sheet in 2011
Chart: LPG Consumption Growth in 2002-2011
Chart: Forecast on China’s LPG Apparent Consumption in (2010-2014)
10.3 Gasoline
Table: China's Gasoline Balance Sheet in 2011
Chart: China’s Gasoline Consumption Growth in 2004-2011
Table: China's Gasoline Apparent Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: China’s Gasoline Apparent Consumption Forecast (2010-2014)
10.4 Naphtha
Table: China's Naphtha Balance Sheet in 2011
Chart: Naphtha Consumption Growth in 2004-2011
Table: China’s Ethylene Apparent Consumption in 2004-2011
Table: China’s Ethylene Production Capacity By End 2011
Chart: China's Naphtha Apparent Consumption Forecast (2010-2014)
10.5 Kerosene and Jet
Table: China’s Kerosene Balance Sheet in 2011
Chart: China’s Kerosene Apparent Consumption (2004-2011)
Table: China’s Apparent Kerosene Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: China Kerosene Demand Forecast (2010-2014)
10.6 Gasoil
Table: China’s Gasoil Balance Sheet in 2011
Chart: Gasoil Consumption Growth in 2004-2011
Table: China’s Gasoil Apparent Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: China Gasoil Demand Forecast (2010-2014)
 
 
10.7  Fuel Oil
Table: China's Fuel Oil Balance Sheet in 2011
Chart: Fuel Oil Consumption Growth in 2004-2011
Chart: Fuel oil Consumption by Sector in 2011
Table: China's Fuel Oil Apparent Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: Forecast of China’s Fuel Oil Demand (2010-2014)
 
 
Appendix:
A1. China’s GDP Growth in 2001-2011
A2. China’s Top 10 Oilfields in 2011
A3. China’s Top 20 Refineries’ Throughput in 2011
A4. China’s Top 20 Gasoline Production Regions in 2011
A5. China’s Top 20 Gasoil Production Regions in 2011
A6. China’s Top 20 Kerosene Production Regions in 2011
A7. China’s Top 20 Fuel Oil Production Regions in 2011
A8. China’s Monthly Crude Imports and Exports in 2011
A9. China’s Crude Imports by Source in 2011
A10. China’s Crude Imports by Customs in 2011
A11. Breakdown on China’s 78 Major Refineries: CDU Capacity
A12. Breakdown on China’s 40 Major Refineries: (≥100kb/d): Complexity & Configurations
A13. Breakdown of Top 10 Independent Refineries: Capacity & Configurations
A14. Specifications of Unleaded Gasoline for Motor Vehicles
A15. Specifications of Ethanol Gasoline for Motor Vehicles
A16. Specifications of No.3 Jet Fuel
A17. Specifications of Naphtha for Petrochemical Plants
A18. Specifications of Gasoil for Vehicle Use (GB 252-1994)
A19. Specifications of Mixed/Cracked 180CST High Sulfur Fuel Oil in East China
A20. Specifications of Mixed/Cracked 180CST High Sulfur Fuel Oil in South China
A21. Specifications of Straight-Run 180CST High Sulfur Fuel Oil
A22. Specifications of Domestic Blended Low-Sulfur High-Viscosity No. 250 Residue and High-Sulfur Residue
A23. Specifications of LPG (GB 11174-89)
A24. Specifications of Industrial Propane
A25. Specifications of Industrial Butane
     

 

 

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