The domestic oil market is challenged by linger impacts from the international financial crisis.
The Chinese government continues to tighten up its monetary policy because of high pressures from imported inflation.
Both domestic oil supply and demand are weighed on by high oil prices.
A seasonal supply crunch reoccurred in the domestic gasoil market as extra supply was needed for power generation when the country was hit by power shortage during extreme weather.
The Chinese government controls gasoil exporting.
Looking into 2012, the second year of the ““Twelfth Five-Year Program”:
Will the Chinese oil market continue to show strong demand to feed its economic growth?
How will the supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic oil product market change in a short run and in a medium to long term?
Will China face supply bottlenecks in the era of high oil prices?
Will the country continue to see rapid expansions in its refining capacity?
Will such expansions result in changes in the country’s oil product exporting?
Will the Chinese government adjust its oil product pricing mechanism after it dovetails domestic jet ex-refinery prices with the international market?
How will the specification upgrading of oil products impact on the domestic supply and demand?
To which direction will China’s gasoline blending market develop?
Will China’s new round of crude oil and oil products strategic reserves trigger another buying binge?
Will the domestic independent refineries weather feedstock supply bottlenecks?
Will more mergers and acquisitions among these refineries take place?
What are the major changes in the Chinese bonded bunker oil market, supplies, market players, or trading models?
With ten years of research experience in China’s oil market, C1 Energy will give in-depth analysis and comprehensive forecast (2012-2016) on the country’s overall petroleum consumption and the market trend of refined products. C1 will also unveil the changes in the oil consumption mix, industry margins, regional supply-demand balance and portrait the living states of the market players, etc.
Features for the C1 Annual Report on China Petroleum Market:
★ Production/import /export data on China's 2011 petroleum market (see chart 3 as an example);
★ Refining capacity of the state-run majors and the independent refineries (see chart 1);
★ Distribution of new refining projects, operational schedules of these projects as well as their possible impacts on the domestic refined product market
★ Major market players in China's refining sector;
★ Oil demand & supply forecasts for the coming five years (see chart 4 as an example)
★ Analysis of the regional arbitrage margins for petroleum products (see chart 5);
★ Refining margins and run rates of the state and independent refineries (see chart 3);
★ Influences of the new oil product pricing mechanism on oil producers traders and end-users
★ Development of new energy and alternative energy;
★ Construction of oil storage and transportation facilities
Table of Contents
1. CHINA'S ENERGY MIX AND OIL CONSUMPTION
1.1 Energy Mix
1.1.1 Energy Mix in 2011
1.1.2 Review of Energy Mix in 2006-2010
1.1.3 Forecast of Energy Mix in 2012-2016
1.2 Oil Consumption
1.2.1 China's Oil Consumption in 2011
1.2.2 China's Oil Consumption in 2006-2010
1.3 Forecast of China's Oil Consumption in 2012-2016
2. CHINA'S CRUDE OIL MARKET
2.1 Dependence on Imported Crude Oil
2.2 Crude Oil Demand
2.2.1 Seasonal Features of Demand in 2011
2.2.2 Consumption in 2006-2010
2.3 Domestic Crude Oil Output
2.3.1 China's Crude Oil Production Capacity in 2011
2.3.2 China's Crude Oil Output in 2006-2010
2.3.3 Major Domestic Crude Oil Producers
2.4 Crude Oil Imports & Exports
2.4.1 Major Crude Oil Suppliers to China
2.4.2 Main Crude Oil Importing Destination in China
2.5 Review of Crude Oil Demand & Supply in 2006-2010
2.6 Forecast of China's Crude Oil Consumption/Imports/Exports in 2012-2016
3. CHINA'S REFINING SECTOR
3.1 Refining Capacity
3.1.1 Refining Capacity by End 2011
3.1.2 Newly-Added CDU Capacity in 2011
3.1.3 Current Processing Capacity on High Sulfur Crude
3.1.4 Increases in Refining Capacity in 2006-2010
3.1.5 Refinery Projects Proposed/Planned for Period: 2012-2016
3.2 Crude Oil Throughputs
3.2.1 Crude Throughputs and Products Yield Ratios in 2011
3.2.2 Crude Throughputs in 2006-2010
3.2.3 Operating Run Rates of Major Refineries in China since 2006
3.2.4 Products Yield Rates of China’s Refineries in 2006-2010
3.2.5 Forecast of China's Crude Oil Throughputs/Refinery Run Rates in 2012-2016
3.3 Independent and Teapot Refineries
3.3.1 Capacities of Independent Refineries in 2011
3.3.2 Feedstock Mix of Independent Refineries in 2011
3.3.3 Operation Rates/Margin of Independent Refineries in 2011
3.3.4 Expansion Plans of Independent Refineries in 2012-2016
4. CHINA'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTS MARKET
4.1 GASOLINE
4.1.1 Gasoline Demand & Supply in 2011
4.1.1.1 Consumption & Output
4.1.1.2 Imports & Exports
4.1.1.3 Exports by Customs & Destination
4.1.2 Gasoline Consumption by Region
4.1.3 Gasoline Demand & Supply in 2006-2010
4.1.4 China's Petrol Retail/Distribution Sector
4.1.5.1 China's Present Retail Petrol Market
4.1.5.2 Foreign Investment in China's Petrol (Station) Retail Network
4.2 NAPHTHA
4.2.1 China’s Naphtha Supply & Demand in 2011
4.2.2 Consumption Mix of Naphtha in China
4.2.3 China’s Naphtha Supply and Demand in 2006-2010
4.3 JET FUEL (KEROSENE)
4.3.1 China’s Kerosene Supply & Demand in 2011
4.3.1.1 Seasonal Changes of Kerosene Output & Consumption
4.3.1.2 Seasonal Changes of Jet Imports & Exports
4.3.2 China’s Kerosene Consumption by Region
4.3.3 China’s Kerosene Supply and Demand in 2006-2010
4.4 GASOIL
4.4.1 Gasoil Demand & Supply in 2011
4.4.1.1 Seasonal Changes of Gasoil Output & Consumption
4.4.1.2 Seasonal Changes of Gasoil Imports & Exports
4.4.1.4 Exports by Customs & Destination
4.4.2 Gasoil Output & Consumption by Region
4.4.3 Gasoil Consumption by Sector
4.4.4 Review of Gasoil Demand & Supply in 2006-2010
4.5 FUEL OIL
4.5.1 Fuel Oil Demand & Supply in 2011
4.5.1.1 Seasonal Changes of Fuel Oil Output & Consumption
4.5.1.2 Net Imports
4.5.1.4 Bonded Bunker Market
4.5.2 Fuel Oil Output & Consumption by Region
4.5.3 Fuel Oil Consumption Structure
4.5.4 Fuel Oil Supply & Demand in 2006-2010
4.5.6 Supply Chain of Fuel Oil: C1 China Top 10 Fuel Oil Importers/Producers/Traders
4.5.7 Competition in Bonded Bunker: C1 China Top 10 Fuel Oil Exporters
4.6 LPG
4.6.1 LPG Demand & Supply in 2011
4.6.1.1 Seasonal Changes of LPG Production & Consumption
4.6.1.2 Seasonal Changes of LPG Imports & Exports
4.6.2 LPG Production & Consumption by Region
4.6.3 LPG Consumption by Sector
4.6.4 LPG Supply Chain: C1 China Top 10 LPG Importers/Exporters
4.6.5 LPG Demand & Supply in 2006-2010
5. SUPPLY & DEMAND FORECAST ON MAJOR OIL PRODUCTS IN 2012-2016
5.1 Forecast of Gasoline Supply & Demand
5.2 Forecast of Naphtha Supply & Demand
5.3 Forecast of Kerosene Supply & Demand
5.3 Forecast of Gasoil Supply & Demand
5.3 Forecast of Fuel oil/Bunker Supply & Demand
5.3 Forecast of LPG Supply & Demand
5.3 Forecast of Petroleum Supply & Demand in 2016
6. OIL PRICES AND MARGINS IN 2011
6.1 Crude Oil Price Movements & Refinery Margins
6.1.1 International Crude Oil Price Movements in 2011
6.1.2 Refining Margins of Major Domestic Refineries
6.2 Distillates Price Movements & Margin
6.2.1 Distillates Crack Spread in Asian Market
6.2.2 Gasoline Wholesale Prices vs. International Crude & Gasoline Prices
6.2.3 Export Margins for Gasoline by Processing Trade
6.2.4 Gasoil Wholesale Prices vs. International Crude & FOB Singapore Gasoil Prices
6.2.5 Import & Export Margins for Gasoil
6.2.6 Margins of Petrol Stations
6.2.7 Naphtha Ex-Refinery Prices vs. CFR Asia Prices
6.2.8 Jet Retail Prices vs. FOB Asia Prices
6.3 Fuel Oil Price/Margin
6.3.1 Fuel Oil Cracks in Asian Market
6.3.2 Price Trend of China High Sulfur 180CST vs. International Crude Futures
6.3.3 CFR China Premium of Mainstream SRFO
6.3.4 Fuel Oil Importing Margin
6.3.5 Fuel Oil Exporting Margin
6.3.6 Exporting Margins for Fuel Oil by Processing Trade
6.4 Oil Blending Market
6.4.1 Gasoline Blending Margins
6.4.2 Fuel Oil Blending Margins
6.5 LPG Trade & Margins
6.5.1 Domestic Wholesale Prices vs. International Crude & LPG Prices
6.5.2 LPG Import Margins in China
6.5.3 Margins of Distributors in Major Cities of China
7. GOVERNMENT POLICIES AFFECTING CHINA’S OIL INDUSTRY IN 2011
7.1 Macro Economy and Related Policies
7.1.1 Accommodative Monetary Policy & Imported Inflation
7.1.2 Slowing Increase of China Automobile & Real Estate Industries
7.1.3 Tight-Money Policy: Historical High Bank Deposit Ratio & Interest Rates
7.2 Regulations & Reforms on Petroleum Industry
7.2.1 Schedules for Promoting GB IV Gasoline: Impact on Blending Market
7.2.2 Supply Chain of Distillate Blending Market
7.2.3 Reform on Pricing Mechanisms for Jet/Gasoline/Gasoil
7.2.4 Sharp Cuts of Refined Product Import Tariffs
7.2.5 Oil Refining Industry Layout in Twelfth Five-Year Program
7.3 When Will China Offer Crude Import Licenses to Independent Refineries?
8. HOT ISSUES IN 2011
8.1 Gasoil Supply Elasticity and Supply Shortages during Spring Festival Holiday
8.2 China’s Promotion of GB Ⅲ Vehicle-Used Gasoil
8.3 New Round of Crude Strategic & Commercial Reserves Construction in Coastal and Inland Regions
8.4 Globalization Strategy for Refining & Chemical Industry
8.5 New Trends of Domestic Petrol Stations
8.6 Active LPG Deep Processing among Independent Refineries
8.7 Crude and Oil Product Strategic & Commercial Reserves
8.7.1 Crude Reserves
8.7.2 Oil Product Reserves
8.8 Development of Alcohol Ether Fuels and Biofuels
8.8.1 Methanol Gasoline
8.8.2 Ethanol Gasoline
8.8.3 Biodiesel
8.8.4 DME
9. LOGISTICS AND INFRASTRUCTURE
9.1 Crude Oil Logistics
9.1.1 Transportation of Domestic Crude Oil
9.1.2 Transportation of Imported Crude Oil
9.2 Distillates Logistics
9.2.1 Major Receiving Terminal for Distillates Imports
9.2.2 Major Pipelines for Distillates Transport
9.3 Fuel Oil Jetty and Tank Farms
9.4 LPG Terminals and Tank Farms
APPENDIX
A1. China’s GDP Growth in 2006-2011
A2. China’s Supply/Demand Balance Sheet for Main Petroleum Products (2011)
A3. China’s Major Crude Production Regions in 2011
A4. China’s Top 20 Refineries by Crude Throughput in 2011
A5. China’s Gasoline Production by Region in 2011
A6. China’s Gasoil Production by Region in 2011
A7. China’s Kerosene Production by Region in 2011
A8. China’s Fuel Oil Production by Region in 2011
A9. China’s Monthly Crude Imports and Exports in 2011
A10. China’s Crude Imports by Source in 2011
A11. China’s Crude Imports by Customs in 2011
A12. China’s Monthly Gasoline Imports and Exports in 2011
A13. China’s Gasoline Exports by Destination in 2011
A14. China's Gasoline Exports by Customs in 2011
A15. China’s Monthly Naphtha Imports and Exports in 2011
A16. China’s Naphtha Imports by Customs in 2011
A17. China’s Naphtha Imports by Source in 2011
A18. China’s Naphtha Exports by Customs in 2011
A19. China’s Monthly Jet Imports and Exports in 2011
A20. China’s Jet Imports by Customs in 2011
A21. China’s Jet Imports by Source in 2011
A22. China’s Jet Exports by Customs in 2011
A23 China's Jet Exports by Trade Mode in 2011
A24. China’s Monthly Gasoil Imports and Exports in 2011
A25. China’s Gasoil Imports by Customs in 2011
A26. China’s Gasoil Imports by Source in 2011
A27 China's Gasoil Exports by Customs in 2011
A28. China’s Gasoil Exports by Trade Mode in 2011
A29. China’s Monthly Fuel Oil Imports and Exports in 2011
A30. China’s Fuel Oil Imports by Customs in 2011
A31. China’s Fuel Oil Imports by Source in 2011
A32. China’s Fuel Oil Exports by Customs in 2011
A33. China’s Monthly LPG Imports and Exports in 2011
A34. China’s LPG Imports by Customs in 2011
A35. China’s LPG Imports by Source in 2011
A36. China’s LPG Exports by Destination in 2011
