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C1 China MTBE Market Weekly


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Owing to a booming automobile industry, China's gasoline demand is expected to keep growing in the coming years. Its appetite for premium gasoline is getting stronger amid a growing population of private cars. Gasoline blending market thus has become more and more active. As an essential blendstock to increase the octane-number of gasoline, MTBE demand has been increasing. 

 

In East and South China, where gasoline demand is among the strongest in the country, MTBE is usually short of supply. These regions are mainly dependent on replenishments from either northern and inland provinces or overseas market including Taiwan, USA, Middle East, Europe, Malaysia and South Korea, etc. Their imports of MTBE from Malaysia are likely to grow since the Chinese government has exempted MTBE originated from ASEAN countries from import tariff, which is set at 5.5% for other supplying countries.

 
Chinese refineries depend on isobutene and methanol as feedstock for MTBE production. They mainly get isobutene from FCC C4, which has an isobutene content of no higher than 15%. Domestic MTBE production also meets its bottleneck by insufficient supply of homemade C4.
 
How strong is the Chinese MTBE demand? Any new changes in the supply and demand fundamentals? When will the Chinese importers come out to source overseas replenishments? When will the import arbitrage window into the Chinese market open? Will the end-user demand grow in the near future? Any new developments with the government policies?

C1 China MTBE Market Weekly report will update the reader with latest development in China's MTBE market. It covers domestic supply and demand fundamentals, downstream demand from gasoline blenders and upstream supply of C4 and methanol.
 
 

A good grasp of the MTBE market would lead to a better understanding of the methanol market, as changes in prices of methanol, one of the major feedstocks for MTBE, affect the MTBE production.

 

In China, MTBE ranked as the second largest traditional downstream consumer of methanol, next only to formaldehyde.

 

The country’s methanol production capacity was estimated to hit a record-high 45-mil-mt/yr by the end of 2010, amid operation of many natural gas-to-methanol units, oven gas-to-methanol units and coal-to-methanol units at home.

 

The capacity expansion required additional consumption outlets, as demands from other traditional downstream sectors like formaldehyde, ethylic acid and pesticide production stood still at present. As for methanol application in alcohol ether fuels production and methanol-to-olefins, the outlook remained misty and demand remained unsubstantial.

 

Surging domestic MTBE production capacity was expected to underpin the country’s consumption of methanol. According to C1’s survey, MTBE production capacity would top 6-mil-mt/yr in China by the end of 2010. This was estimated to generate 2-mil mt of methanol demand per year, namely 10%-15% of the country’s annual methanol output. China produced 10-mil mt of methanol in 2009, according to data released by the General Administration of Customs.

 

 

Meanwhile, as a major feedstock for high-purity isobutylene, MTBE also had indirect impact on Methyl methacrylate (MMA) market. MTBE as blendstock could only bring thin margins for refineries, so it would be essential for domestic refineries to explore new MTBE applications, like in MMA production via isobutylene oxidation.

 

MMA production via acetone cyanohydrin (ACH), accounted for 80% of the world’s total MMA production capacity. Production via Isobutylene and via ethylene took up merely 15% and 5%, respectively. US and Europe adopted ACH method in MMA production. Japan used the isobutylene oxidation method, which was considered highly potential for its low costs, light pollution and high efficiency.

 

As demand for MMA rose from polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) production, leather treatment and lubricant additive, domestic MMA production capacity also increased. Currently, companies such as Evonik Degussa Corporation, Huizhou MMA Co Ltd, PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical and Lucite International (China) Chemical Industry Co Ltd produced 40% of China’s MMA, all via isobutylene oxidation method.

 

Due to the closer link between MTBE and MMA markets, a thorough mastery of the MTBE market helped to better understand the MMA market.

 
 
Features:
 
a. MTBE assessments in China's major consumption/production bases
b. MTBE import/export margin analysis
c. MTBE supply/demand, trades, import/export arbitrage, market sentiment updates
d. Turnaround schedules of key domestic MTBE producers
e. MTBE downstream demand from gasoline blending
f. Gasoline market trend, assessments, blending margin analysis
g. C4 market trend, postings from major domestic FCC C4 suppliers
h. Methanol market trend, assessments
i. MTBE and MTBE-related market news --run rates, production capacity expansion, policy changes, refinery operation updates, etc
  

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