Summary
China's refining capacity grew drastically in the past three years amid robust economic growth. The aggressive expansion strategies of state-run oil refiners and independent refineries led to an investment binge in the domestic refining industry. In 2009, the fever was triggered further by the new pricing mechanism of oil products, which announced bullish signals for refiners. The refinery expansion frenzy is expected to sustain the coming years.
C1's survey found, by the end of 2009, China has ranked as the world's second largest refiner, with nearly 11.2MBD of CDU capacity. A double-digit annual growth will likely to secure the country with nearly 16MBD of refinery capacity in five years' time.
China is transforming from a products net importer to an emerging exporter. Meanwhile, it is whetting its appetite for foreign crude. The country has become more and more active in the Asian as well as the global crude and products trading markets. Increasingly active in the world market, the Chinese state-owned companies are showing more influences on the market fundamentals, and having a bigger say in the oil pricing.
Having conveyed C1's deepest understanding on China's petroleum sourcing and production systems, China Refining Industry 2010 aims to help you to re-locate the country's role in the world refining industry and to analyze the strength and trend of its refining industry in the following years.
In this report, C1 also investigates China's undergoing SPR and commercial oil reserves, and their roles in balancing domestic oil demand and supply.
Features
China's vigorous refinery expansion trend
Changes in China's crude sourcing
Potentials in oil products importing and exporting
China's impact on the global oil market in the future
Comprehensive and latest census of China's existing and projected refining capacity and detailed configuration, including CDU/VDU, CCR, Hydro-cracking, Hydro-fining, FCC/RFCC, Coker, desulfurization, aromatic, alkylation, asphalt and MTBE etc
Compass of China's Petroleum policy orientation since 2009, under new oil product pricing mechanism and fuel tax policy etc
In-depth analysis of advantage and challenge for foreign investor in China's refining industry
Exclusive refining margin and operation rates data and observation
Insight and Omni-directional analysis on China's overall petroleum fundamental
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface
Executive Summary
1. Overview: China'S Refining Industry Layout
1.1 Development in China's Refining Capacity
Chart: Distribution of Refining Capacity in the World in 2009
Chart: Refinery Scale Comparison: China vs. Major Refining Giants
Chart: Refining Capacity Expansion in China (1997-2011)
Chart: Changes in China's Refining Capacity (2004-2009)
1.2 China's Oil Refining Bases
1.2.1 China's Refining Capacity – by Region
Chart: China’s Refining Capacity – by Region
Map: Distribution of China’s Refineries
1.2.2 China's Refining Capacity – by Ownership
Chart: China's Refining Capacity - By Ownership
Table: Average Refinery Capacity of China’s Top 4 Refiners
1.2.3 Top 10 Refineries in China
Table: Top 10 Refineries in China - By Capacity
1.3 Independent Refineries Independent of Sinopec and PetroChina
Chart: Aggregate Capacity of Independent Refineries (2009) – By Region
Table: China's Top Ten Independent Refineries at End 2009
1.4 Foreign Capital in China's Refining Industry
Table: Sino-Foreign Joint Venture Refineries in China
2. Characteristics of Refineries in China
2.1 Typical Processing Flow in Chinese Refineries
Chart: Processing Flow of Fuel Refineries
Chart: Processing Flow of Fuel-Chemical Refineries
Chart: Processing Flow of Fuel-Lube Oil Refineries
2.2 Complexity and Configuration of Chinese Refineries
Chart: Refinery Configuration Comparison
2.2.1 Simple Topping Units
Table: Chinese Refineries with Topping Capacity Above 160kb/d
2.2.2 Residue Catalytic Cracking Conversion Units
Table: Key FCCs and RFCCs in Chinese Refineries
2.2.3 Delayed Cokers
Table: Capacity of Cokers in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.4 Distillates Hydrocracking Conversion Units
Table: Hydrocracking Conversion Units in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.5 Hydrofining Conversion Units
Table: Hydrofining Units in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.6 Reforming Units
Table: Reforming Units in Major Chinese Refineries
2.2.7 Aromatics Units
Chart: China’s Aromatics Production Capacity by End 2009
2.2.8 Bitumen Units
Table: China's Top 10 Bitumen Producers
2.2.9 MTBE Units
2.2.10 Ethylene Units
3. Crude oil sourcing and flow ofChina
3.1 Crude Oil Supply and Demand in China
Chart: China's Crude Oil Supply in 2005-2009
3.2 Crude Oil Imports
3.2.1 Crude Import Trend in 2004-2008
Chart: China's Crude Oil Imports in 2005-2009
3.2.2 Flow of Crude Oil Imports – By Region
Chart: China's Crude Oil Imports – By Region
Chart: Major Crude Oil Imports Declaration Customs in China (2009 vs. 2004)
Map: Major Crude Oil Imports Declaration Customs in China (2009 vs. 2004)
3.2.3 Major Origins of China's Crude Imports
Chart: Changes in Major Crude Oil Suppliers to China – Comparing 2009 with 2004
3.3 Growing Supplies from Russia and South America Amid Closer Energy Cooperation
Table: China's "Loan-for-Oil" Agreements Achieved in Jan-Apr 2009
3.4 Domestic Crude Oil Output
Chart: China's Crude Oil Production – by Ownership (2009)
Map: Distribution of China's Major Oilfields
4. Government Policy Perspective on the Refining Industry
4.1 Petrochemical Stimulus Package for 2009-2011
4.2 Policy Guidelines for Joint-Venture Refinery Investment
4.2.1 Refining Industry Entrance Requirements
4.2.2 Import Licenses and Quotas
4.2.3 New Crude-Based Pricing Mechanism for Domestic Product Prices
Table: Adjustments in China's Distillates Prices in the Last Four Years
4.2.4 Increasing Third-Party Crude Processing and Product Toll-traded exporting Quata
Table: Quotas of Refined Oil Processing Trade Granted to PetroChina and Sinopec in 2010
4.2.5 High Consumption Taxes Levied on Oil Products in domestic market
Table: China's Consumption Tax Reform for Oil Products
4.2.5 Qualifications for Crude Oil & Refined Oil Distribution Business in China
Table: China's Authorized Crude Distributors at End 2009
Table: Oil Products Wholesale License Holders Statistics
4.3 Import/Export Duties Changes in 2010
4.3.1 Import Duties Raise on Petroleum Products in 2010
Table: Provisional Import Tariffs on Crude Oil and Main Refined Oils
4.3.2 Export Duties for Crude & Petroleum Products
4.4 Deregulation of the Chinese Oil Market
5. Opportunities & Challenges for Foreign Investment in China's Refining Sector
5.1 Opportunities
5.1.1 China's Excessive Appetite and Dependency on Foreign Oil
Chart: China's Dependency on Foreign Crude in 2005-2009
5.1.2 Capital Advantage
5.1.3 Technical Advantage
5.2 Challenges:
5.2.1 Barriers in the Refining Sector
5.2.2 Barriers in the Chinese Refined Oil Wholesale Market
5.2.3 Limitations in Importing and Exporting
5.2.4 Monopolization of SOEs in Wholesale and Retail Markets
Chart: Distribution of Petrol Stations at End 2009 – by Ownership
6. Cost and margin analysis of China's Refining industry
6.1 Feedstock Components of China's Refineries
6.2 Changes in Refining Margins Since 2004
Chart: CNPC's & Sinopec's Refining Profits/Losses in 2004-2009
Chart: Change in China's Refining Margins in 2008-2009
6.3 Impact of Current Oil Products Pricing Mechanism
6.4 Wider Use of Heavy Sour Crude to Reduce Feedstock Costs
6.5 Profit Model of China's Refineries
7. Operation Status of China's Refineries
7.1 Crude Throughputs at Chinese Refineries
Chart: Historical Crude Oil Throughput (2005-2009)
Chart: Average Run Rates of China's Major Refineries (2005-2009)
Chart: Average Run Rates of China's Major Refineries in 2009
7.2 Product Yield Ratios of China's Major Refineries
Chart: Oil Product Yield Ratios of China’s Major Refineries (2004-2009)
Chart: Product Output of Sinopec/CNPC in 2009
7.3 Refinery Turnaround Schedules in 2009
Table: Maintenance Schedules of Major Refineries for 2010
8. Forecast of China'S Refining Industry Layout
8.1 China's Capacity Expansion in 2010 and Beyond
8.1.1 Newly-Added or Planned Major Refineries in 2010 and Beyond
Table: Newly-Added or Planned Major Refineries in 2010 and Beyond
Map: Major Refinery Expansion Projects in China for 2010 and Beyond
8.1.2 Newly-Added or Planned Capacity in Existing Refineries in 2010 and Beyond
Table: Newly-added or Planned Capacity in Existing Refineries in 2010 and Beyond
Table: Secondary Refining Units to Be Added or Expanded in Major Refineries
8.1.3 Estimated Layout of China's Refining Industry by 2015
Chart: Estimated Distribution of Refining Capacity Increases in Chinese Major Refineries in 2009-2015 - by Region
Chart: Estimated Distribution of Refining Capacity in Chinese Major Refineries by 2015 - by Region
8.1.4 Capacity Expansion of Independent Refineries in 2010-2011
Table: Capacity Expansion Plans of Independent Refineries in 2010-2011
9. Government's Specification Regulation
9.1 Background of Government Regulation
Table: China's Vehicle Emission Standards Schedule (original plan)
Table: China's Specifications for National Standard Gasoline and Gasoil
9.2 The Government's Timetable for National Standards
Table: China's Motor Vehicle Emission Standards Schedule (revised plan)
Table: Specifications for National Phase III Gasoline for Motor Vehicles (GB 17930-2006)
Table: Specifications for National Phase III Gasoil for Motor Vehicles (GB 252-2000)
Table: Specifications for Beijing Local Phase IV Gasoline for Motor Vehicles (DB11/ 238-2007)
Table: Specifications for Beijing Local Phase IV Gasoil for Motor Vehicles (DB11/239-2007)
9.3 The Impact of New Specifications Regulation on Refinery Upgrading
10. Crude Oil Logistics & Infrastructure
10.1 Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
Table: Phase I of China’s SPR Bases
Table: Phase II of China’s SPR Base
Table：China’s Major Commercial Crude Reserve Bases
10.2 China's World-Class Crude Receiving Terminals
Map: Distribution of China’s Major Crude Jetties & Tanks
Table: China’s Major Crude Receiving Jetties in Operation
Table: China’s Major Crude Receiving Jetties Being Planned or Under Construction
10.3 Overview of Crude Pipeline Networks in China
10.3.1 Inner Pipeline Network
Table: Main Pipelines for Domestic Crude Oil Transportation in China
10.3.2 Cross-Country Pipeline Network
Table: Main Pipelines for Foreign Crude Oil Supply into China
10.4 Outlook for Logistics and Infrastructure Projects
11. Refined products outlook and trends in China
Chart: Petroleum Consumption Growth vs. Refinery Capacity Growth in 2005-2009
11.1 LPG
Table: China's LPG Balance Sheetin 2009
Chart: LPG Consumption Growth in 2002-2009
Chart: Forecast on China's LPG Apparent Consumption in (2010-2014)
11.2 Gasoline
Table: China's Gasoline Balance Sheetin 2009
Chart: China's Gasoline Consumption Growth in 2004-2009
Table: China's Gasoline Apparent Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: China's Gasoline Apparent Consumption Forecast (2010-2014)
11.3 Naphtha
Table: China's Naphtha Balance Sheetin 2009
Chart: Naphtha Consumption Growth in 2004-2009
Table: China's Ethylene Apparent Consumption in 2004-2009
Table: China's Ethylene Production Capacity By End 2009
Chart: China's Naphtha Apparent Consumption Forecast (2010-2014)
11.4 Kerosene and Jet
Table: China's Kerosene Balance Sheetin 2009
Chart: China's Kerosene Apparent Consumption (2004-2009)
Table: China's Apparent Kerosene Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: China Kerosene Demand Forecast (2010-2014)
11.5 Gasoil
Table: China's Gasoil Balance Sheetin 2009
Chart: Gasoil Consumption Growth in 2004-2009
Table: China's Gasoil Apparent Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: China Gasoil Demand Forecast (2010-2014)
11.6 Fuel Oil
Table: China's Fuel Oil Balance Sheetin 2009
Chart: Fuel Oil Consumption Growth in 2004-2009
Chart: Fuel oil Consumption by Sector in 2009
Table: China's Fuel Oil Apparent Consumption Forecast for 2010
Chart: Forecast of China's Fuel Oil Demand (2010-2014)
Appendix:
A1. China's GDP Growth in 2001-2009
A2. China's Top 10 Oilfields in 2009
A3. China's Top 20 Refineries' Throughput in 2009
A4. China's Top 20 Gasoline Production Regions in 2009
A5. China's Top 20 Gasoil Production Regions in 2009
A6. China's Top 20 Kerosene Production Regions in 2009
A7. China's Top 20 Fuel Oil Production Regions in 2009
A8. China's Monthly Crude Imports and Exports in 2009
A9. China's Crude Imports by Source in 2009
A10. China's Crude Imports by Customs in 2009
A11. Crude Imports by Source and Likely Refinery (2004)
A12. Crude Imports by Source and Likely Refinery (2009)
A13. Breakdown on China's 78 Major Refineries: CDU Capacity
A14. Breakdown on China's 40 Major Refineries: (≥100kb/d): Complexity & Configurations
A15. Breakdown of Top 10 Independent Refineries: Capacity & Configurations
A16. Specifications of Unleaded Gasoline for Motor Vehicles
A17. Specifications of Ethanol Gasoline for Motor Vehicles
A18. Specifications of No.3 Jet Fuel
A19. Specifications of Naphtha for Petrochemical Plants
A20. Specifications of Gasoil for Vehicle Use (GB 252-1994)
A21. Specifications of Mixed/Cracked 180CST High Sulfur Fuel Oil in East China
A22. Specifications of Mixed/Cracked 180CST High Sulfur Fuel Oil in South China
A23. Specifications of Straight-Run 180CST High Sulfur Fuel Oil
A24. Specifications of Domestic Blended Low-Sulfur High-Viscosity No. 250 Residue and High-Sulfur Residue
A25. Specifications of LPG (GB 11174-89)
A26. Specifications of Industrial Propane
A27. Specifications of Industrial Butane
